In the Spotlight | Three Years of Russia’s War in Ukraine
What’s Ahead in 2025?
February 24 marks three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The war still rages on, with nearly 33,000 civilian casualties and Russia occupying more than 7% of Ukraine’s territory. What does 2025 hold for Ukraine? Is a ceasefire possible? FPRI hosted an expert panel today to discuss the US and EU role in supporting Ukraine, lessons learned, and the challenges that lie ahead.
Featured Speakers
Stefan Meister, German Council of Foreign Relations
Maia Otarashvili, Eurasia Program Director, FPRI
Pavel Luzin, Scholar on Russia's defense and politics
Robert Hamilton, Head of Eurasia Research, FPRI
On the Ground in Kyiv
FPRI Senior Fellow Maria Avdeeva is in Kyiv for commemoration events today and has kindly shared some reflections about the situation on the ground.
The war is ongoing in two different worlds. One world where politicians speak about ceasefire deals, and the other world on the ground where Ukrainian soldiers continue defending their positions every day…Ukrainians live under constant threat of Russian attacks. It does not matter where you live, every night you become a potential target…The mood remains that no matter how hard Russia tries, by working, and living normally as much as possible, Ukrainians show Russia, and the world, Ukraine is unbreakable, and Ukraine is ready to continue fighting. - Maria Avdeeva
Event Highlights
There is a lack of understanding that this is a long war and it will not go away, even if Donald Trump speaks about a ceasefire. It’s about the European security order and Russia’s role in the global order and Ukraine is key here. - Stefan Meister
Successful policy in any administration requires a combination of experience and vision. You need people who know how a government runs and then you need people who have and can articulate a strategic end or vision for the policy that they’re implementing. The Biden administration had plenty of experience but I would argue very little vision, it never articulated a consistent vision for the end of the war…The Trump administration has a split in vision, and has very little experience—they have very few people in the administration who understand policy, strategy, war, Russia, or Ukraine. That’s a problem. - Robert Hamilton
Russian forces are still able to push Ukrainians back, but they are not able to defeat them. I think that is a significant fact we should think about. After three years of war, Russian military potential is limited. We see that Russia still relies on some stockpiles of Soviet-era arms and equipment, and these stockpiles are ending, most of them will be exhausted by the second half of this year. - Pavel Luzin
When JD Vance and Elon Musk support right-wing or extremist parties in Europe, when they support interfering in domestic politics, this is empowering those who polarize these systems from within. It means they are hitting our values and the way our systems function from the inside. That may be even more dangerous than Mr. Putin’s way of trying to undermine cohesion fueling polarization in our societies. - Stefan Meister
If we were to agree to Russia’s demands in Ukraine, it won’t stop the war in Ukraine and it will invite a larger war. I’ll put it this way as bluntly as I can— we’ll end up fighting Russia somewhere else at a time and place of Russia’s choosing in a way that we cannot opt out of. - Robert Hamilton
Related Content
📖 A Deal with Russia at Ukraine’s Expense Will Not Bring Peace - Olena Snigyr
🎙️ Report in Short: Russian Strategic Culture and the War in Ukraine - Aaron Schwartzbaum and Denys Yurchenko
▶️ A Just Peace for Ukraine? Prospects for Conflict Settlement in 2025 - Olena Snigyr, Victoria Vdovychenko, Robert Hamilton, and Maia Otarashvili
🎙️ With So Much Drama in the NSC: Trump, Russia, and the Strategic Context - Aaron Schwartzbaum and Stephen Wertheim