Monthly Highlights | June 2025

US-China strategy, Russia's use of instruments of statecraft, disinformation labs in Burkina Faso, and more.

Leah Pedro

and

Natalia Kopytnik

Jul 01, 2025

Balancing Acts: Deterrence and Reassurance in US-China Strategy

Asia Program - Expert Commentary

The contributors to this roundtable examine whether Washington has emphasized one pillar—deterrence—at the expense of the other. Nikolas Gvosdev argues that global overstretch has undermined US credibility in Asia, as Beijing and regional partners question Washington’s ability to prioritize the Indo-Pacific in a crisis. Takuya Matsuda emphasizes the importance of assurance and diplomatic clarity to avoid miscalculation, especially across the Taiwan Strait.

Russia’s Use of the Instruments of Statecraft in the Indo-Pacific

Alexander Korolev - Report

This report analyzes Russia’s use of diplomatic, military, and economic instruments of statecraft to advance its interests in the Indo-Pacific region and examines how China perceives it. Russia has utilized instruments of statecraft to maintain a two-level engagement pattern in the region—systemic balancing and regional hedging. This two-level engagement pattern does not undermine Russia’s systemic alignment with China, but it reduces Moscow’s dependence on Beijing and makes the regional aspects of China-Russia relations more complex.

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Burkina Faso: The World’s Disinformation Lab is an International Security Disaster

Raphael Parens - Analysis

While the Sahelian country’s neighbors have experienced similar disinformation campaigns and problematic responses to governance failures, Burkina Faso is a particularly problematic case given the scope of violence, loss of state control, and the sheer level of disinformation emanating from state sources.

Latvia’s Renewed Conscription Turns Two

Māris Andžāns - Baltic Bulletin

July 1, 2025, marks two years since the first conscripts began their 11-month service under Latvia’s renewed conscription system, known as the National Defence Service. The road ahead may encounter challenges due to rising conscription numbers and decreasing public support.

Podcasts

From Russia with Risk

Aaron Schwartzbaum and Rachel Ziemba - Bear Market Brief

On the Bear Market Brief, a lot of what we focus on is, simply put, risk: what might happen, and what might it mean? In this episode, geoeconomic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to delve into the discipline of Political Risk: how does one “do” the field?

Surviving Two Years in Russian Captivity

Rob Lee and Yevgeniy Malik - Chain Reaction

In this special two-part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol at the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war.

In Part 1, Yevgeniy explains what it was like to be a prisoner of war in Russian prisons, and what the thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war still face every day. In Part 2, Yevgeniy details his time in captivity in Russia’s Mordovia prison, the circumstances of his eventual release in a prisoner exchange in September 2024, and reflects on his ordeal and the conflict as a whole.

Please be advised that these episodes contain content that may be disturbing to some listeners.

Russian Political Warfare Operations in the Balkans

Philip Wasielewski and Ivana Stradner - Overheard

The western Balkans, including Bosnia and Kosovo, were the scene of some of the bloodiest warfare and atrocities in Europe post-World War II until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Approximately twenty-five years after the last of the fighting in the region, tensions still simmer, and some predict that the region could see a renewal of violence. Balkan scholar and Russian security expert Ivana Stradner joins host Phil Wasielewski to discuss her recent FPRI article on the subject and analyzes the possible impact of Russian disinformation, subversion, and covert actions on peace and stability in the Balkans.

Event Highlight

Alexander Korolev, Thomas Shattuck, and Robert Hamilton discuss the elements of the report series for the US European Command’s Russia Strategic Initiative has utilized the instruments of statecraft to analyze the interests, influence, and relationships of Moscow and Beijing across the vast Indo-Pacific region. Their conversation brings together the series themes and provide a forward-looking approach to Moscow and Beijing’s foreign policy trajectory in the region.

Explore More FPRI Projects

Baltic Initiative | Bear Market Brief | Behind the Front | The Ties That Bind