Monthly Highlights | May 2025
US-Asia policy shifts, the QUAD's interest in Mozambique, Georgia's authoritarian slide, and contemporary lessons from a historic covert action program.
The Return to Strategic Ambiguity: Assessing Trump’s Taiwan Stance
Thomas Shattuck - Analysis
Despite a growing consensus around Beijing’s desire to take Taiwan by force in the coming years, Washington has maintained its long-term policy of strategic ambiguity on all Taiwan contingencies. That policy is quite simple: the US government will not commit to a specific action in response to Chinese action on Taiwan.
The Wrong Russia-Ukraine Deal Could Undermine US Security
Philip Wasielewski - Analysis
President Trump’s administration has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital trying to end this war. However, it is possible that a “deal” that both warring parties can agree on to stop the war in Ukraine does not exist, and the conditions that Russia wants will weaken US national security.
What to Expect from Secretary Hegseth’s First Shangri-La Dialogue Speech
Chris Estep - Analysis
Hegseth’s audience in Singapore may not only be looking for insights into the Pentagon’s approach to the region; they might also draw wider conclusions about the second Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific priorities from his remarks.
Prometheism: A Polish Covert Action Program
Phil Wasielewski - Report
Between 1920-1939 Poland conducted a covert action program known as Prometheism to undermine the Soviet Union by supporting the national independence movements of non-Russian peoples within its borders. The key battleground of this secret war was Ukraine, but Prometheist activities also extended throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as from the salons of Paris to the plains of Manchuria.
Today, Moscow wages a similar secret war of subversion, espionage, assassinations, propaganda, and paramilitary covert actions against the West and is at war with Ukraine to seize its eastern lands and beyond.
This report offers the most extensive English-language review of the Prometheism program, its operations across Eurasia, and the lessons that can be applied to contemporary independence movements and covert action programs.
Navigating Political Crisis and Conflict in Mozambique
Raghvendra Kumar - Analysis
Despite Mozambique’s significant economic potential, the evolving security situation in the country has profoundly impacted the interests of the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” (Quad)—a diplomatic partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
Gradually, Then Suddenly: Georgia’s Slide Into Authoritarianism
Bob Hamilton, Batu Kutelia, Vasil Sikharulidze, and Miro Popkhadze - Chain Reaction
For over 150 straight days, Georgians have been in the streets demanding that their country return to the path of European integration and halt what they describe as its slide toward becoming a Russian client state. But the Georgian government has not budged, cracking down on the protests, sometimes with violence, and refusing to consider the protestors’ demand for new elections.
How might this all end, and what does Georgia’s plight mean for the country, Europe, and the US?
The War’s Impact on Russia's Regional Power Dynamics
Aaron Schwartzbaum and András Tóth-Czifra - Report in Short
In this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with András Tóth-Czifra about his recent report, “The Kremlin’s Balancing Act: The War’s Impact on Regional Power Dynamics.” In the report, Tóth-Czifra explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.
What E-Estonia Can Teach the US
Indra Ekmanis and Joel Burke - Baltic Ways
Technologist Joel Burke is the author of the recently published Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution. He shares his insights with Indra Ekmanis on the country’s rise as a leader in e-government, technological exports in a globalized world, and what the US can learn from Estonia in a moment of disruption.
▶️ Russia Escalates Drone Attacks on Ukraine
Bob Hamilton - PBS Newshour
📖 South Korea Must Change How It Deals with the United States and Europe
Taehwa Hong - National Interest
▶️ US-Spain Relations: The North African Dimension
Africa Program - Event Recording
📖 Weaponizing Culture in Service of War
Mohammed A. Salih - The New Arab
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