The Kremlin's Balancing Act

A new report by András Tóth-Czifra examines the war’s impact on Russia's regional power dynamics

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets.

In The Kremlin's Balancing Act, Eurasia Program Fellow and Bear Market Brief contributor András Tóth-Czifra explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.

The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.

These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain, and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability. Find out more in this exposé on Russia's internal battle for power. Continue reading on fpri.org.

András Tóth-Czifra is a Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and contributing author for FPRI's Bear Market Brief Newsletter. Read more of his analysis in No Yardstick, now on Substack.