Turkey’s Evolving Geopolitical Strategy in the Black Sea
A new FPRI report by Antonia Colibasanu outlines four potential scenarios for Turkey’s strategic alignment in the Black Sea
Turkey’s strategic position between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia places it at a pivotal crossroads in Eurasian geopolitics, particularly as regional conflicts reshape power dynamics and international alliances.
Turkey’s strategic significance has long been underscored by its control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, which grant exclusive access to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean. This geographical position, combined with deep historical and cultural ties to Ukraine’s Crimea, positions Turkey as a key player in Black Sea security.
Recent years witnessed significant changes in the Eurasian security framework. Russia’s belligerent posture in Ukraine and questions over the United States’ changes in its enduring commitment to European security have renewed demands for a more autonomous and more powerful European defense mechanism.
Most recently, in practical terms, the importance of Black Sea maritime security for Turkey’s strategy is reflected in its recent collaboration with NATO allies Romania and Bulgaria to establish a Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Task Force in the Black Sea. This task force, activated in 2024, underscores Turkey’s commitment to ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea amid rising security risks due to the Ukraine conflict.
However, Turkey’s position as a major security player in the Black Sea is further complicated by its relationship with Russia. Although Turkey has refrained from fully following the West in imposing sanctions against Russia and it shares cooperation with Russia in several sectors, including that of energy, their relations have been strained by competition for influence in the Black Sea and the South Caucasus.
Antonia Colibasanu outlines four potential scenarios for Turkey’s strategic alignment in the Black Sea, depending on how regional conflicts evolve:
1. Pro-Western Alignment
Turkey aligns closely with NATO and the EU, decisively opposing Russian influence in the Black Sea and strengthening its military and economic ties with Western allies.
2. Pro-Russia Tilt
Should Russia achieve regional, Turkey may deepen its ties with Moscow, potentially at the expense of NATO presence in the Black Sea.
3. Regional Leadership & Strategic Diversification
Turkey asserts itself as a regional leader by reducing its reliance on both NATO and Russia, fostering stronger economic and security relations with the Black Sea and Central Asian countries.
4. Balanced Neutrality
Turkey maintains a neutral stance, balancing relations between NATO and regional powers, avoiding deep involvement in ongoing conflicts, and focusing on mediating disputes.
Antonia Colibasanu is a 2024 Templeton Fellow and a Senior Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. She is also a Senior Geopolitical Analyst and Chief Operating Officer at Geopolitical Futures.
